PRE SEASON HURRICANE FORECAST

I am forecasting 23 named tropical cyclones 2022.

Of those, I am forecasting 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, category 3 and above.

My forecast is above that of CSU and higher than my 2021 forecast.

My reasons are varied.

My first reason are the cool temperatures, close to May now, that persist in the ENSO regions.

Nino 1-2 SST anomaly is       -2.0 C

Nino 3                                     – .7 C

Nino 3-4                                 -. 8 C

Nino 4                                     –.6 C         

All of these are in La Nina Range.

The SST anomalies in the Nino regions have been anomalously cold, the entirety of 2022.

There have been a lot of strong EWB with strong 850 Mbs zonal winds in the EPAC.

I am noticing that the 850 MBS trade winds are subsiding a bit and there is bit more warming of the SSTS at the deeper levels in the West Pacific. They are creeping a bit into the EPAC at the deeper levels.

Nonetheless, that waters are still anomalously cool and the forecast is for La Nina or a cool Neutral to persist throughout the hurricane season.

The + AMO will thus continue to produce warm SSTS in the Atlantic.

For me, the biggest factor that differentiates this year from 2021 hurricane season, is the distinctive shift from a + NAO to a – NAO.

Ive noticed that this shift started in mid-March.

This is my reason for the higher numbers of named storms along with continuing La Nina conditions.

The –NAO might create lower zonal trade winds in the tropical Atlantic which might raise MDR SST’s more. This may also create less SAL, raise SSTS, enhance instability, and increase the chance for long track MDR storms. Unlike 2021 in which a + NAO included lower SSTS, strong trades, and abundant SAL inhibiting the creation of long track MDR hurricanes.

Because of the possibility, I am forecasting more major hurricanes.

The Caribbean and the GOMEX are both anomalously warm.

Finally, vertical instability in the tropical Atlantic is a bit higher at than in May of last year.

It would not shock me if we do have another hyper active season as in 2020, unless we return to a +NAO which is possible.

JEA

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